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After one comment has been approved, subsequent comments should appear automatically. and Delaygue, G., 2008, Comment on “Are there connections between the Earth’s magnetic field and climate? Earth & Planetary Science Letters, 265, No 1-2, 302-307. et al., 2007, Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. It is estimated that this could be double the climate sensitivity.On Monday 22 January, a new post was added that details the role of The Sun: The Cosmogenic Isotope Record and the Role of The Sun in Shaping Earth’s Climate Climate change is a defining issue for our time. M., 1993, Microfaunal evidence for elevated mid-Pliocene temperatures in the Arctic Ocean. ” by Courtillot, V., Gallet, Y., Le Mouël, J.-L., Fluteau, F. Contribution of Working Group I to the 4th Assessment Report of the IPCC. When viewed in the context of geological time, today’s conditions are atypical.Main sources: Climate change: evidence from the geological record A statement from the Geological Society of London November 2010 An addendum to the Statement on Climate Change: Evidence from the Geological Record December 2013 The addendum is arranged such that some sections are unchanged from the original.For other sections additional information is provided, but this is not merged with the original content.And so I asked if I could reproduce the statements on these pages and invite informed commentary.This modus operandi was approved by Dr Summerhayes’ co-authors and the committee of the Geological Society of London.Advances in field observation, laboratory techniques and numerical modelling allow geoscientists to show, with increasing confidence, how and why climate has changed in the past. At that time, temperatures rose to levels 2-3°C warmer than today, and sea level rose by up to 20m in places.
The Discussion in comments What I am soliciting in primary comments is informed opinion driven mainly by what data tells us, backed up by references to data sources. et al., 2007, Climate Change 2007 – Mitigation of Climate Change. They also have a tendency to underestimate the magnitude of past changes.The Council of the Society is issuing this statement as part of the Society’s work “to promote all forms of education, awareness and understanding of the Earth and their practical applications for the benefit of the public globally”. J., 2008, A new global biome reconstruction and data-model comparison for the Middle Pliocene. This highlights how unusual current temperatures, and estimated future warming, are.The statement is intended for non-specialists and Fellows of the Society. Before the current warming trend began, temperatures in the Holocene (the last 11,000 years) were declining.Its is therefore not possible to read a single updated report. N., 1998, CO2 fluxes from mid-ocean ridges, arcs and plumes. Cover image: Image of Antarctica from Blue Marble data collected by NASA. Since our original 2010 statement, new climate data from the geological record have arisen which strengthen the statement’s original conclusion that CO2 is a major modifier of the climate system, and that human activities are responsible for recent warming.What I have provided below is the full text of the original 2010 statement which is ~ 3000 words long and a copy of the 2013 Addendum summary. Palaeoclimate records are now being used widely to test the validity of computer climate models used to predict climate change.The climate is the statistical average of the weather taken over a long period, typically 30 years. Tree ring data confirm that recent warming is unprecedented in central Europe over the past 2,500 years, and in eastern Europe over the past 1,000 years. It is never static, but subject to constant disturbances, sometimes minor in nature and effect, but at other times much larger. Palaeoclimate records from the Arctic show that the warmest 50-year interval of the past 2,000 years occurred between 19 AD. Bilham, Geological Society of London Draft reviewed by P. I have newly activated a “Comment Image” plugin for the blog that will hopefully enable commenters to post images in their comments. [Unfortunately “comment images” live in the background do not seem to be working. Studies of the Last Glacial Maximum (about 20,000 years ago) suggest that the climate sensitivity, based on rapidly acting factors like snow melt, ice melt and the behaviour of clouds and water vapour, lies in the range 1.5°C to 6.4°C.If anyone is experiencing difficulty posting long comments then contact me by email.] Those who have not commented on this blog before will find the first comment goes to a moderation queue. and Bischoff, S., 2000, Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel consumption and cement manufacture, 1751-1991, and an estimate of their isotopic composition and latitudinal distribution. Recent research has given rise to the concept of ‘Earth System sensitivity’, which also takes account of slow acting factors like the decay of large ice sheets and the operation of the full carbon cycle, to estimate the full sensitivity of the Earth System to a doubling of CO2.With the current and growing global population, much of which is concentrated in coastal cities, such a rise in sea level would have a drastic effect on our complex society, especially if the climate were to change as suddenly as it has at times in the past. Increased CO2 in the atmosphere also increases CO2 levels in the oceans, making sea water slightly more acidic and less oxygenated. Equally, it seems likely that as warming continues some areas may experience less precipitation leading to drought. In past warming events, such as at the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) 55 million years ago, this caused marine crises and extinctions.